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Leading-edge foundry is now a one-and-a-half-supplier market: TSMC dominant, Samsung a credible second source for the first time since 14nm, Intel selling capacity it can't yet yield profitably.
Two-plus years of Red Sea attacks and critical-mineral chokeholds have repriced supply chains. The 2026 question is not whether risk reverses — it's how much higher it goes from here.
Qui tam economics now mirror healthcare fraud — a competitor's compliance officer can collect 15–30% of recoveries — and USTR's July 24 deadline turns thin China-plus-one paperwork into nine-figure liability.
Three choices on the table — license Chinese tech, vertically integrate and eat the margin, or exit LFP for high-nickel — and one of them is wrong for your company.
Buying more GB300 in late 2026 is a worse decision than buying less and waiting for Rubin — and the contract terms you sign before September define your cost-per-token through 2028.